국내 최대 기계 및 로봇 연구정보

기술보고서

기술보고서 게시판 내용
타이틀	Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS
저자	Wheeler, Mark M.
Keyword	CLIMATOLOGY;; DATA BASES;; DETECTION;; FORECASTING;; GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACE;; GUSTS;; PROBABILITY THEORY;; SUMMER;; UPPER ATMOSPHERE
URL	http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20100024375
보고서번호	NASA/CR-2010-216282
발행년도	2010
출처	NTRS (NASA Technical Report Server)
ABSTRACT	The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.